That Nigeria is one of the most complex countries in the world is no longer news.

With over 250 ethnic groups speaking over 400 languages. A country where ethnic loyalty is above national loyalty.

Nigeria is a Federal State where each of the 36 componet states( and Federal Capital Territory Abuja ) are autonomous to an extent.

The 36 states are 19 in the north and 17 in the south. The FCT( Federal Capital Territory) Abuja is in the north and that sums up 20 for the north.

The Northerners are predominantly Muslims and are beleived to be more populated than the southerners that are predominantly christians.

Before the advent of democracy in 1999, the north has dominated power and ruled for 34 years of the 39 years of Nigerias' existence as an independent nation then.

At the dawn of the present democratic Republic(1999-date) a political arithmetic was introduced that will see power alternated between the North and South. every eight years. A further equation was also added where the country is divided into six geopolitical zones( namely; south west, south east, south south, north east, north west, and north central)

The equation was put to the test for the first time in 1999, which saw the then President Olusegun Obasanjo from the south west, the vice president Atiku Abubakar from North east, President of Senate from south east, Deputy Senate president North central, speaker of the House of representatives North west and his deputy hails from south south.

This zoning arrangement is followed down to the component states and local governments tiers of government respectively.( Nigeria Has three tiers of government; Federal, State and local government. My example is only at the federal tier of government.)

It is important to note that the Zoning Arithmetic is the idea of the rulling Peoples Democratic party (PDP) but other parties by their body language seems to have adopted the same political calculation. The PDP thought that this arrangement will be a solution to complains of marginalisation and exclusion from governance by other ethnic nationalities against the north. It was hoped that the formula will ensure justice, fairness and equity among all the component units that makes up Nigeria.

The Zoning mechanism is not provided for in the Nigeria's grundnorm but something similar is found in section 14 of the constitution. Section 14 of the constitution of the Federal republic of Nigeria 1999 provides for the principle of Federal Character. That is; the composition of a department of government should not be dominated by persons of the same ethnic group, family or religious belief.

Exponents of Zoning believe that this provision of the constitution gives credence to the zoning equation. Antagonist of zoning argues that it is undemocratic and limits the political space. They further contend that it sometimes throws up mediocres in office as against the most competent and that it does not allow for the much needed national integration and unity that has eluded this sleeping giant of Africa for almost a century since her creation by the colonial government in 1914.

The South tenure(1999-2007) ended with former president Obasanjo on tthe 29th of may 2007 and Late President yar'adua assumed office on the same day.

Yar'adua was a northern son and is to take four years of two tenures subject to re-election and complete the tenure of the north then power will return to the south in 2015.

Death dealt a blow to this arangement with the sudden death of president Yar'adua on the 5th of may 2010.


By the principle of succession, the vice president DR. Goodluck Jonathan a southerner assumed office as president and chose a northernern form the same geopolitical zone with late Yar"adua as his deputy, to complete the first four years of Yar'adua and the north's first tenure.


Elections are due in January next year and the north is insisting that President Jonathan should not contest, a true northern scion must emerge as president to complete the remaining four years of the north under the zoning formula.

The south south geopolitical zone where Jonathan hails from is home to the volatile and oilrich Niger Delta that produces over 90 percent of Nigeria's revenue, has never produced a president.


Curiously, the constitution of Nigeria guarantees every Nigerian the right to aspire to any office in the land including that of the President.

The north fears that if Jonathan is allowed to emerge as president, he is constitutionally entitled to two tenures of four years(subject to re-election) and she will be left out in the cold political wilderness till 2019 before she will have one of her sons in the political saddle of the country.

The south south is equally agitating that she is the goose that lay the golden egg which has sustained Nigeria for over four decades, that it is only just for their son to be allowed to run for the office of the president and continue in office by may 2011.


This issue has over heated the polity with Nigerians having divergent opinions on what is the way out of this political log jam.